1635 – The Papal Stakes — Snippet 09
— Miro reflected that Jenatsch might even be telling the truth —
“– but no angels have come to drive out the invaders. So what mysterious power are you suggesting will deliver us?”
“Not a mysterious power: just simple physics. The physics of real politik.”
Jenatsch blinked at the unfamiliar term, even though it was in his native German. “What do you mean?”
Miro pointed to the map on the table, located at their equidistant center. “What do the Hapsburgs call the Valtelline?”
Jenatsch frowned; he clearly did not appreciate any discursive approach which left him feeling as though he was being schooled. “It is the transalpine part of what they dub the Spanish Road. As you well know. From Chiavenna to Tyrol, it is how the thrice-damned Spanish and Austrian Hapsburgs exchange troops and goods. It is also a barrier against similar north-south exchanges for the rest of Europe.”
“And which Hapsburg activities has it enabled in the last ten years?”
Jenatsch considered. “The wars in Germany: what the up-timers call the Thirty Years War. Also, the Spanish campaigns against the Dutch.”
“But what has happened to those activities?”
The smile returned to Jenatsch’s face; Miro could well imagine that savage expression glaring at him over the glinting edge of an axe.
Miro explicated the obvious for Ziegler’s benefit. “Spain’s adventurism north of the Alps has all but vanished. In the Low Countries, the Infante Fernando increasingly turns his back on Madrid; his brother the King seems no more eager to send new troops to him than the new ‘King in the Low Countries’ seems to have them. Besides, any further influx of Spanish troops would make his partner in the Provinces, Frederik Hendrik of Orange, exceedingly nervous. Possibly war-like.
“And with that old Papist firebrand Ferdinand of Austria dead,” Jenatsch said with satisfaction, “his namesake son and successor is pursuing a more moderate course of action.”
“Much more moderate. Particularly since his sister married Fernando, who rescued her from a war zone with the assistance of an up-time aircraft. Indeed, after the recent war with Bavaria, one could almost call the relations between the USE and Austria cordial. They are at the very least quiescent. And if Wallenstein can be induced not to encroach southward across the Austrian border from Bohemia, I very much suspect that the worst of the middle European wars are behind us — with the greatest loser being Spain.”
Ziegler looked baffled. “Spain? What do you mean? Other than losing a few tercios, how has Spain suffered so greatly?”
Jenatsch’s predatory grin was back. “Our visitor is talking about losses in influence, not men or money, Herr Ziegler. This new Austrian King has allowed his relations with Madrid to cool, has tacitly approved Fernando’s claim in the Low Countries by allowing his sister to marry him without challenging the legitimacy of the title and land he claims. And this is why Spanish movement through the Valtelline has diminished so greatly in these past two years.”
Miro nodded. “You see the rest, of course.”
The blank look on Ziegler’s face was the antithesis of the cunning insight on Jenatsch’s. “Of course. Spain holds its Road in the Valtelline, but feels less need for it. Its value as a conduit is lost; its value as a defensive blockade, interposed between the north and south extents of Europe, diminishes also. With its treasury ever-more overdrawn, Philip of Spain — or rather, Philips’s puppet-master and lap-dog, Olivares — will withdraw most of the investment required to retain the Valtelline. And when their alliance with the French finally unravels, as it must –”
“– you will be able to stand aside, and let the weak French and Spanish alpine forces exhaust themselves upon each other.”
“At which point, the USE will intervene and help us take back all our lands!” Jenatsch’s smile was shadowed; he wasn’t in jest, but he knew he had gone too far, intentionally so. He was testing Miro.
Who smiled. “That last projection is beyond current consideration, Colonel. But the rest of what you envision seems very likely to transpire within the next several years. All you need to do is save your treasure and energy, and await the inevitable. The USE presence in Chur will disincline any trifling adventurism by Spain or France. And you, I’m sure, will give them no reason to do so. In the meantime, we will increase regular overland trade to Chur as well.”
Now Ziegler sat up straight again: the discussion had moved back into familiar territory, for him. “How so?”
“I am even now negotiating to establish a proprietary trade link over the Bodensee between Buchhorn and Rorschach.”
“And why is this trade route useful to you?” Ziegler’s brows were beetled in intense suspicion. “It has been of only marginal interest to the Germans, up until now.”
“In addition to various resources and goods common in the Alps but somewhat scarce in Germany, we can provide Graubünden with finished goods from northern Europe without adding on the tariff costs incurred when they pass through Constance or Zurich first. But also, we must have a way of ensuring that there is always enough fuel on hand here in Chur, and a regular schedule of overland portage is the most prudent way to do so.”
Ziegler actually rubbed his hands together. Jenatsch at last leaned back, his eyes almost blank, his imagination no doubt racing inward along spider webs of new, interlocking schemes and stratagems. “So Herr Miro,” Ziegler exhaled, “which of our alpine goods most interest your –?”
There were two slow knocks on the door, followed by three, staccato raps.
Miro held up an apologetic hand. “With your pardon –” Over his shoulder, he said: “Enter.”
Virgilio Franchetti, Miro’s senior blimp pilot and builder, stuck his head in the door. “Don Estuban, you asked to be informed when the fuel test was complete.”
Which was a complete and utter fabrication: the fuel mixture had already been tested and set. This phrase was, instead, a prearranged code to inform Miro that new priority orders had been received over the radio, orders that required immediate action.
Which was simply another way of saying: there is a new crisis brewing.
And we see also the foundations of an independent Helvatia / Switzerland.
I am a bit concerned by the increasing tendency towards a Balkanization of much of Europe. So many small states with leaders who see themselves as capable of great things if they only had the lands and wealth of their neighbors. A perfect recipe for near permanent strife.
@1 The 1648 peace of Westphalia oficially acknowledged the fact that the Swiss Confederation was an independent entity and no onger a piece of the Holy (?) Roman (?) Empire (?). Long before that the Eidgenossen acted as if they were independent, and the states intersted in it’s main export (soldiers) treated the confederation as an independent state. Or treated with the seperate Kantons as if they were independent states.
What resources from the Alps would be referred to in the text? Switzerland today has almost no natural resources (minerals) and the main foreign exports are agricultural and industrial goods (those made mostly from imported materials) and services (banking, tourism). The only export that would be interesting for someone in the 1630’s would be soldiers. Whose training and equipment need to be modernised schnell.
@1 Stan Leghorn: OTL Europe ATT WAS thoroughly “Balkanized”. The HRE was a mix of many extremely small (some ABs and principalities were one town only) and a few middling large (Bavaria, Saxony, Brandenburg-Prussia) principalities (“the Germanies” was not a misnomer) . It was not any type of monolithic body.
If anything the advent of the USE, KLC, GDB, etc. have coalesced alot of territory. The mediatization in the USE provinces/states especially helped put paid to the postage-stamp realms of OTL.
@2 By the fact of acknowledgement in the OTL1648 Treaty of Westphalia, I assume in OTL it was either the Tyrol or Austrian Hapsburgs who were the “previous owners” of the Swiss Confederacy. But as the Swiss were in the beginning of their Ancien Regime troubles it probably made little difference. In NTL canon Austria is on record as considering both the 13 Cantons (with attendant Imperial Cities and towns “turning Swiss”) and the Grisons (heavily allied but AFAIK separate entities still ATT) as as much Austrian property (though possibly Tyrolean Hapsburg property) as that taken by Wallenstein (Greater Bohemia), though they have not effectively held them for some time. And as pointed out in the snippet Ferdinand III and Phillip of Spain (or more properly Olivares) have woesof their own.
I wish I could place this talk on the timeline with Tyrol joining the USE and the treaty with the GDB (Bernhard Wettin) though!!
As for assets/resources: while in OTL their primary export was mercenaries; IIRC in NTL there is some natural resources development; and more areas “turning Swiss” than in OTL. And with the severe internecine warfare damped down, their natural trade position will also pay dividends.
Also some GG stories in Swiss settings have brought up other resources/assets and upgrades they have made.
In NTL they (including most of what later became the full confederacy OTL and the new arrivals) border: Savoy (not yet part of Spanish Italy); Milan (part of Spanish Italy); Greater Venice ( a USE ally and currently where Urban is holed up); the Valtelline (currently still in the Bundner Wirren (the warfare talked of in the last two snippets) and highly contested); the USE (in Tyrol, Swabia, and possibly Wurtemmberg); Geneva (currently semi-independent); southeastern France (minimally) and the GDB (Bernhard’s Grand Duchy of Bohemia).
The troubles of the OTL Ancien Regime are still in infancy but are there as well.
/Rob
Though with the Valtelline being part of the “Spanish Road” and contiguous with parts of “Spanish Italy” it may be Phillip’s rather than Ferdinand’s lookout to retain.
/Rob
Correction:
Bernhard’s Grand Duchy of Burgundy
NOT!!!!!! Bernhard’s Grand Duchy of Bohemia
I screwed up badly. My apologies to all!!!!!!
/Rob
@4 Rob, good commentary, one slight misstatement, or at least I believe so, GDB is the Grand Duchy of Burgundy. If the GDB is Bohemia then Wallenstein has something to worry about.
You are entirely correct. I was tired and SEVERELY mistyped.
I meant to say Bernhard’s Grand Duchy of Burgundy!!!!!!
Thanks for the catch!!!!
/Rob
Is there a map of NTL Rurope as of 1636 anywhere? I am having a bit of trouble keeping track of where things are.
Thank You!
Here ( http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/8430/1635ishv19.png ) is a map towards the end of 1634. Corrections for early 1636:
Tyrol which includes Trent and Brixen joined the USE;
Bonn and Cologne joined the USE as Imperial Cities;
but most of west-Rhine territory goes to KLC (a small bit to Essen and less to the USE);
Lorraine-Bar is under dispute between France, KLC, GDB(Burgundy on map), and USE (Metz is definite KLC as are parts of northern France);
parts of eastern Brandenburg, eastern Saxony, and northern Silesia went to the PLC but some were recovered to the USE during ‘Eastern Front’;
Piedmont is part of Savoy;
and Lauenberg-Butowland recovered to USE.
I can’t find my non-Bar-login-required links to the overall europe NTL maps though.
Sorry!!!!
/Rob
There is also this OTL1600 map : ( http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/73/Europe_map_1600.jpg ).
Corrections for NTL:
use map ( http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/8430/1635ishv19.png ) to correct USE/KLC/GDB/Bohemia and for northmost Italy;
Nevel to Toropez to Kaluga to Kursk is (roughly) more the NTL PLC/Russia borderthan that on the map;
the arm of Russian territory down through Astrakhan is in NTL narrower;
Swedish Livonia is labeled Crown of Poland on map and is roughly divided from Inflanty (Polish Livonia) by a line from Jakobstadt to Pskov;
Swedish Estonia is labeled Duchy of Estonia;
Swedish Ingria is the portion of modern Leningrad Oblast west of the Lava River;
Swedish Prussia is designated areas (Truce of Altmark) in Baltic areas of PLC and Duchy of Prussia;
Swedish Karelia ( http://heninen.net/view_e.htm?F=old_map&P=1695.jpg );
Russia has barely crossed east of the Urals;
The Faroes Islands, Iceland, the Orkney Islands (on lien to UK), the Shetland Islands (on lien to UK), parts of Greenland, and some other North Atlantic/Barents Sea Islands belong to Denmark-Norway (and in NTL the area of Kirkenes-Nikel and possibly east to Murmansk does as well);
The Ottomans control most of North Africa with the exception of Morocco and the small Republic of Bou Regreg (Salli pirates) and a few Spanish/Portuguese outposts;
The Papal States are labeled as Saint Peter;
Naples-Sicily is labeled as the Two Sicilies;
Savoy, Milan, Genoa-Corsica, Sardinia, Venice, and Tuscany are separately labeled while Mantua-Monferrat, Modena, Lucca, and Parma are not;
And Wallachia/Transylvania/Moldavia (comprising part of the Transdanubians), the Khanate of Crimea, and Ragusa are semi-independent parts of the Ottoman Empire.
I am sure I probably missed some, but you get the idea!!!
/Rob
East of the Ottoman Empire is the Safavid Empire and that border was elastic (in NTL the Ottomans have just taken Erevan and Bagdad).
Lebanon WAS a semi-independent part of the Ottoman Empire, but in OTL1635 Murad beheaded Fakhr al Din the last independent ruler (he had individual ties to Tuscany) .
In OTLSep1635 Swedish Prussia was returned to the PLC by the OTLTreaty of Stuhmsdorf. In NTL by the terms of the Truce of Altmark’s expiriation without Treaty in Sep1635 the transfer of property should have been greatly in the other direction.
Don’t forget that Ducal Prussia (Elector of Brandenburg), Lauenberg-Butowland (G2A), and Courland-Semgallia (Kettlers; whose Golden Age heir is currently disinherited) are all fiefs of the PLC crown. And that the AB of Warmia (that central bite out of Ducal Prussia) currently belongs to one of the PLC King’s younger brothers. And lastly Danzig (rapidly being denied their priveledges by the PLC) owns Hel, Sopot, Gdynia, and a portion of the Vistula basin as well.
/Rob